As we get nearer to the one-quarter mark of the twenty first century, it could appear that issues are altering sooner than ever earlier than, particularly within the areas of tradition and media. I take care of music for a dwelling and even I can’t sustain with the whole lot that’s occurring. However I feel I can see issues clearly sufficient to make some predictions and observations for music in 2024.

1. Music will turn out to be much more fragmented

Within the olden days, we obtained all our music in measured doses by document labels, radio, music magazines, document shops and video channels. At this time, the whole lot ever recorded is obtainable to us on a regular basis. There’s nobody place — just like the radio or MuchMusic — the place all of us go to listen to/see the artists that everybody is speaking about. Consensus on what’s “good” and who’s “huge” has fully damaged down. There’s no centre to music anymore. Apart from a couple of acts, “huge” has by no means been smaller.

Few acts unite us as they as soon as did. There was a time once we all ran to the document retailer to get that one album everybody was speaking about. We handed over chilly, arduous money, making a monetary funding within the artist. At this time, there’s a lot music to select from for zero money format. We spend all our time idly hitting the “skip” button. We’re all overwhelmed. Music has turn out to be devalued. At this time’s stars are smaller than these from days of yore.

By the use of proof, American radio chart analyst Man Zapoleon identified that 2023 had fewer “consensus hits” — songs that have been featured on not less than 50 per cent of America’s high 40 stations — than any earlier 12 months. What number of? Simply 18, down from 28 in 2020.

In the meantime, there appears to be a rising disenchantment with present music. About 75 per cent of all music consumed as we speak is older than two years. That’s not going to alter.

2. The algorithms will proceed to distort music

Suggestion algorithms was important for working our approach by means of music discovery. Now, although, they appear to be pushing us to issues which are simply monetized as a substitute of fulfilling our wants. For those who really feel that you just’re being served up materials that you just don’t care about, you’re not alone.

In the meantime, bot farms, faux streams, poor enforcement/moderation and AI clones are simply going to make issues much more complicated and irritating.

3. TikTok might be much more of a game-changer in 2024

TikTok has been one of many world’s hottest apps for a few years now. The corporate realizes that continued development will rely upon deeper integration of licensed music into the platform. As soon as it has TikTok Music, its streaming service, up and working in additional nations, look ahead to some seismic modifications in how the trade reacts.

4. Music streamers should consolidate — finally

I’ve been untimely with this prediction earlier than, nevertheless it’s obtained to occur someday. Proper now, there are too many platforms chasing subscribers for a quickly maturing enterprise mannequin. Why did Spotify CEO Daniel Ek announce main layoffs simply earlier than Christmas? As a result of he and his board see tough occasions forward. Spotify goes into lean-and-mean mode. In the meantime, all streamers stay hamstrung by the licensing offers underneath which they have to work. As quickly as extra money is available in, extra money goes out in lockstep. There’s no alternative for efficiencies and synergies that may improve margins.

Spotify has a market cap of just about US$40 billion and has the reserves to proceed to play the lengthy recreation. Apple Music will survive, because of the truth that the guardian firm is price over US$3 trillion. Something Alphabet does (YouTube, YouTube Music) can also be protected. Amazon Music has Jeff Bezos. However what about Tidal, Qobuz, Deezer, Napster and everybody else? How lengthy can they keep impartial?

5. The language of widespread music will proceed to evolve

It was that when you wished a worldwide hit, you needed to sing in English. Not anymore. Because of the widespread availability of low cost streaming music, songs are free to movement wherever they need. Latin music has exploded. Ok-pop is in all places. It’s solely a matter of time earlier than we see world hits rising from India, China and Africa.

6. The AI-and-music panic will subside

Proper now, everybody sees AI as a menace to humanity in music. However we’ve seen this film earlier than with the rise of synthesizers (“They’re killing jobs for musicians!”), drum machines (“Human drummers will turn out to be extinct!”) and sampling (“All music will find yourself simply being recycled bits!”). It’ll take a couple of extra years to kind out all of the legalities and ethics of this new expertise, however we’ll quickly marvel how all of us did with out AI. Similar to we did with synths, drum machines and sampling.

7. We’ll lose extra beloved musicians

With so lots of our legends of their 70s and 80s, it’s only a matter of time. Put together your self.

8. We’ll lastly have music that sounds pretty much as good as what we had within the ’70s

A few generations have grown up on the inferior audio high quality of MP3s and their ilk. Handy and transportable, sure. Good-sounding audio? No. However with the rise of recent tech (Dolby ATMOS, Sony 360, Apple Spatial Audio, Hello-Res Audio) we’re approaching an period the place music is not going to solely sound higher than MP3s and different compressed codecs however higher than CDs. Just a few issues nonetheless must be labored out (correct decoding {hardware} on telephones, extra bandwidth to permit for wi-fi listening), however we’ve turned a nook in relation to getting again to correct high-fidelity music.

9. We might lastly say sufficient is sufficient to excessive ticket costs

Acts have been pushing arduous to see how a lot followers are keen to pay to see a present. To this point, although, followers haven’t reached the breaking level. Funflation — the thought of spending an increasing number of cash on enjoyable issues as a result of the world appears so loopy that going to a gig is a method of dealing with one existential disaster after one other — can’t go on indefinitely. As soon as artists and promoters begin seeing rows and rows of empty seats, they’ll know that we’ve reached our restrict.

10. The Taylor Swift/Travis Kelce factor will finish badly

Discuss a advertising powerhouse. Kelce was already a star when he crossed paths with Tay-Tay, so when their relationship turned public, they turned a Richard Burton-Liz Taylor-style phenomenon.

Their tryst has been a win-win for everybody, together with the NFL, which has seen scores in sure demos skyrocket. A large portion of the inhabitants is invested within the couple, however for the story to be full, it has to finish with a tragic breakup. A couple of particular person has written that if the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs tank down the stretch and into the playoffs, Swift will likely be made right into a scapegoat by Chiefs followers for inflicting such a distraction. I’ve already seen her known as “Yoko” a lot of occasions. However simply consider the songs she is going to get out of it!

Which will find yourself being the beginning of the Tay-Tay backlash. You may’t turn out to be as ubiquitous as Taylor Swift is now eternally. Sooner or later, folks will start to tire of listening to and studying about her daily. It received’t be the tip of her, nevertheless. She’s confirmed far too savvy in relation to managing her profession and he or she’ll survive any downturn. However Taylormania as we all know it proper now will subside. That’ll be a pleasant break.

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Alan Cross is a broadcaster with Q107 and 102.1 the Edge and a commentator for International Information.

Subscribe to Alan’s Ongoing Historical past of New Music Podcast now on Apple Podcast.

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