What Hits Could Stop It? – Billboard

The Contenders is a midweek column that appears at artists aiming for the highest of the Billboard charts, and the methods behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated Aug. 19), Morgan Wallen is 4 weeks from making Billboard Scorching 100 historical past – however might not get there, if Luke Combs, Taylor Swift, Olivia Rodrigo or different rising hitmakers have something to say about it.  

Morgan Wallen, “Final Night time” (Massive Loud/Mercury/Republic): Wallen’s first Scorching 100 No. 1 – and a uncommon nation No. 1 with no co-lead artists or apparent pop crossover try (although it has nonetheless turn into a high 5 hit at pop and grownup radio) – has slowly however certainly elbowed its approach into the Billboard document books. With its fifteenth week at No. 1 (on the Scorching 100 dated Aug. 12), “Final Night time” ties Harry Kinds’ “As It Was” (2022) for each the longest-leading No. 1 of the 2020s, and the longest within the Scorching 100’s now-65-year historical past from an unaccompanied artist.  

Subsequent in its sights: 16 weeks and a tie for the second-longest run atop the Scorching 100, alongside Mariah Carey and Boyz II Males’s “One Candy Day” (1995-96) and Luis Fonsi and Daddy Yankee’s Justin Bieber-featuring “Despacito” (2017). After that, just one track stands between it and all-time Scorching 100 No. 1 supremacy: Lil Nas X’s “Previous City Street,” that includes Billy Ray Cyrus, which held on high for a record-breaking 19 weeks in 2019.  

In contrast to “Previous City Street,” which Lil Nas X labored tirelessly to push to No. 1 and preserve there – with a succession of music movies, remixes, high-profile dwell performances and social media memes – Wallen has leaned nearly all the best way again for “Final Night time,” doing remarkably little public promotion exterior of the One Night time at a Time World Tour that he’s been on since March. Fairly, its reign has been extra harking back to Kinds’ 2022 run at No. 1, the place the track’s efficiency merely held throughout all classes (streams, gross sales and radio airplay) each robust sufficient and lengthy sufficient to basically function the default Scorching 100-topper anytime there wasn’t a significant new launch.  

However how lengthy and the way robust is it nonetheless holding after 15 weeks at No. 1 (and 27 weeks whole on the chart)? There are lastly actual indicators of slippage, because the track falls on every of the Streaming Songs (from No. 1 to No. 3), Digital Track Gross sales (6-7) and Radio Songs (2-4) charts this week. The door is creaking open, however one other track will nonetheless need to cost by means of – and as of this week, “Final Night time” stays the one hit within the high 10 of all three charts.  

Luke Combs, “Quick Automotive” (River Home/Columbia Nashville/Columbia): Probably the most instant risk to “Final Night time” must be the track that’s landed precisely one spot beneath it on the Scorching 100 each week since July 1. Luke Combs‘ “Quick Automotive” is definitely main “Final Night time” on each Digital Track Gross sales (regular at No. 4 this week) and Radio Songs (climbing 3-2), although it nonetheless trails it considerably on Streaming Songs (No. 11, buried beneath an avalanche of Travis Scott debuts). 

The massive query for “Quick Automotive” is that if it could acquire sufficient on “Final Night time” on radio – the one metric the place both track continues to be rising – to make up for its streaming shortfall. Whereas it’s already had a five-week run at No. 1 on Nation Airplay, lastly changed on high this week by Jelly Roll’s “Want a Favor,” it nonetheless has room to develop on high 40 radio, with the track inching up 13-12 on the Pop Airplay itemizing this week; it additionally hits No. 1 on Grownup Pop Airplay, whereas pushing 8-7 on Grownup Up to date. If it continues to develop steadily there, whereas staying stage on streaming, it might shut the hole sufficient with “Final Night time” within the subsequent couple of weeks. 

Taylor Swift, “Merciless Summer season” (Republic): Swift already got here near unseating Wallen earlier this summer season, when her Midnights single “Karma” shot to No. 2 (largely because of a lift from a brand new Ice Spice-featuring remix), however couldn’t fairly depose “Final Night time.” Now she ought to have one other shot – not with a brand new track, however an older one: “Merciless Summer season,” a former deep lower from her 2019 album Lover, which has ridden a wave of fan fervor and seasonal momentum (in addition to official label promotion) to turn into successful, and reaches a brand new peak of No. 4 on the Scorching 100 this week.  

The story with “Merciless Summer season” is just like that of “Quick Automotive”: “Final Night time” has a large edge on streaming (“Summer season” ranks simply No. 19 on Streaming Songs this week), however is beginning to fade on radio whereas “Summer season” surges. And “Summer season” is de facto beginning to swelter on the airwaves: It grew to become Swift’s record-setting twelfth No. 1 on Pop Airplay final week, and breaks the highest 5 on Radio Songs this week in simply its seventh body on the chart. If its velocity retains up, it might go each Combs’ and Wallen’s hits in due time, and could possibly be within the hunt for No. 1 shortly after.  

An attention-grabbing wrinkle on this three-way race: None of those songs have correct music movies or remixes but on streaming companies. That is basically par for the course for Wallen (who has not traditionally leaned on remixes or made a music video since final summer season’s “You Proof”), and outdoors of a not too long ago launched dwell clip, Combs has taken a largely hands-off strategy to selling his “Quick Automotive” cowl, which he didn’t initially intend to be a single. Swift has in depth latest historical past of each official movies and remixes, although – albeit just for Midnights singles, so there’s no precedent for her to tug these levers for an older track. If she does so, although, it may give “Summer season” the additional warmth it must get excessive.  

IN THE MIX 

Travis Scott, Utopia (Cactus Jack/Epic): Morgan Wallen might have the No. 1 spot on the Scorching 100 this week, however in any other case the chart belongs to Travis Scott: All 19 tracks from his July album Utopia debut this week, led by the Drake-featuring “Meltdown” (No. 3) and the Playboi Carti-featuring “FE!N,” whereas “Ok-POP,” with Dangerous Bunny and The Weeknd, is already a rising radio hit. These tracks will probably lose some floor in streaming subsequent week, but when one in every of them (or any of the opposite 17) begins to catch some viral warmth, Scott actually has the streaming juice to turn into an element: He’s topped the Scorching 100 4 occasions already, together with with earlier album Astroworld’s breakout single “Sicko Mode.”  

Gunna, “fukumean” (YSL/300): Whereas 2023 has been quick on breakout hip-hop hits, “fukumean” has been a notable exception since its July launch, as a part of Gunna’s A Reward & A Curse album. The TikTok-boosted smash has gotten as excessive as No. 4 on the Scorching 100 – it slips to No. 7 this week – nevertheless it continues to carry out exceptionally on streaming, and is beginning to discover its footing on radio, surging 28-20 on R&B/Hip-Hop Airplay. If high 40 – which has by no means been notably form to Gunna – decides to offer the track (and its radio-unfriendly hook, a minimum of in unedited kind) an actual probability, he may pressure his approach into the highest three earlier than lengthy.  

Olivia Rodrigo, “Vampire” and “Dangerous Thought Proper” (Geffen): Rodrigo’s lead single from her much-anticipated upcoming sophomore album Guts, “Vampire” truly did already debut at No. 1, however slid in subsequent weeks as first-week streams and (particularly) gross sales declined. The track continues to be hanging across the decrease reaches of the highest 10, although– with airplay quickly selecting up (13-11 on Radio Songs this week) – and it might quickly be joined within the high tier by new single “Dangerous Thought Proper,” which is due this Friday, and really more likely to prolong her streak of high 10 Scorching 100 debuts.