One other day within the wacky world of Elon Musk’s Twitter, and at present, Elon has each killed off a plan to add a secondary, ‘official’ gray tick, to enrich the blue checkmark for sure Twitter accounts, whereas he additionally met with key advertisers in an effort to calm their issues in regards to the future route of the app.
Actually, it should be exhausting for Elon to travel so usually, however I additionally assume that we’re now beginning to get a greater understanding of the method right here, the tactic behind the perceived insanity of his strategy. That that is, truly, all a part of a plan, regardless of how misguided that plan could seem.
In a TED Discuss again in 2014, Elon Musk defined how he approaches issues, and why he’s been so profitable at discovering various options, which many have ignored.
As defined by Musk:
“Nicely, I do assume there’s an excellent framework for pondering. It’s physics. You already know, the form of first rules reasoning. What I imply by that’s, boil issues all the way down to their elementary truths and purpose up from there, versus reasoning by analogy. Via most of our life, we get via life by reasoning by analogy, which primarily means copying what different individuals do with slight variations.”
The elemental idea right here is that we’re usually too reliant on what’s already occurred, what’s been performed, as a marker of what is going to come subsequent, which may blind us to the alternatives which might be proper in entrance of us, as a result of we predict that we already know the end result.
Once you view issues from this attitude, the chaos that Musk has overseen to date at Twitter makes a little bit extra sense. Slightly than hearken to the numerous commentators which have seen social platforms strive issues like subscriptions up to now, and fail, and even take the previous historical past of social platforms into consideration, Musk has approached issues with a extra clean slate view.
‘What would occur if we did cost for a blue checkmark?’
In fact, I, like virtually everyone else, assume that this proposal received’t work, primarily based on precedents like Twitter Blue, or Facebook’s past explorations of charging for the app. However Elon Musk doesn’t have a look at issues the identical method, and that’s how he’s solved a few of the greatest technological issues at his different corporations.
And when you think about this, the entire Elon persona, and strategy, makes extra sense.
Elon himself has primarily flagged this at present, noting that:
Please be aware that Twitter will do numerous dumb issues in coming months.
We are going to preserve what works & change what doesn’t.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) November 9, 2022
Giving everybody blue checkmarks, with no ID verification, has already led to various cases of misinformation and deception, inside hours of the choice being launched – which, in equity, Twitter has snuffed out fairly fast. However this looks like solely the beginning, as there’ll be many, many ways in which scammers will look to make use of this as a method to dupe individuals, whereas the quantity of customers which might be prone to pay for a blue tick might be not sufficient to even make it well worth the effort.
However once more, I’m viewing this with historical past as my information – I’m it primarily based years of analyzing social networks, and the teachings that the platforms have discovered up to now, which guides my view of what I count on to be the end result.
That’s not how Elon Musk works, and the extra we see of his strategy, the extra that is coming into perspective, doubtlessly flagging what we will count on.
One other facet to think about in Elon’s Twitter strategy is promotion, and his distinctive strategy to getting consideration.
It’s notable that Tesla, Elon’s important firm, doesn’t pay for promoting, and by no means has, and a giant a part of the rationale why it doesn’t is as a result of having Elon Musk as its entrance man is definitely simply as beneficial as paying for adverts
As a result of he loves consideration, and he is aware of the best way to get it – which, in the long run, signifies that he doesn’t must pay for it, as a result of the media involves him.
In the identical vein, Elon is aware of that he can generate big curiosity and a spotlight just by tweeting loopy issues. For instance, primarily based on inner knowledge (which Musk shared this week), Twitter engagement is definitely on the up since he took over on the app.
Watching this unfold, I can now see that this might all, doubtlessly, be part of his larger plan, which signifies that Musk will preserve tweeting out his typical outlandish, attention-grabbing stuff, then let every remark percolate among the many media, successfully selling Twitter within the course of.
Then he’ll simply abandon the dumbest ideas, as he says, shrugging them off as random late-night ideas.
On the identical time, Musk will proceed to carry conferences like at present’s chat with advert companions, the place he’ll stroll again his most galling feedback. Inside this, he’s successfully saying ‘yeah, I say a number of random stuff, which is definitely actually good for the platform’s numbers, however in actuality, I’m not going all-in on excessive hate speech, and so on.’
That steadiness will get tough when his followers begin calling on him to enact a extra free speech strategy, in keeping with his public statements. However perhaps, that is the method, balancing numerous spinning plates by working to appease as many sides as he can.
Random class warfare tweets, then calming advert exec conferences. Supporting ‘free speech’, then assembly with the Chinese language Authorities to deal with their issues.
On steadiness, this does nonetheless seem to be an untenable established order. However what we’re seeing is just like Trump’s strategy to the app, flooding the zone together with his ‘off the dome’ feedback, whereas working on the different finish to construct the enterprise.
And once more, as Musk himself notes, a few of these concepts received’t work. However he’ll strive them anyway – as a result of why not?
Certain, individuals are gonna be irritated about his $8 per thirty days ‘verification’ proposal. But when they don’t prefer it, they don’t pay, then Twitter scales it again at a later date – or much more probably, reverts again to the unique system as soon as it’s clear that not sufficient customers can pay (nonetheless betting on this being the most definitely final result).
Then what occurs? Twitter utilization reverts to regular, with perhaps a couple of extra individuals paying for subscriptions. Then Twitter will launch another subscription providing, which is perhaps barely higher, perhaps worse. Some individuals can pay, others received’t, and we’ll all debate the logic of Elon’s newest loopy transfer, successfully maintaining Twitter and Musk within the information.
And regardless of this being a messy course of, and all out in public, it might nicely assist to maximise Twitter promotion, and preserve extra individuals coming to the app to hitch within the chaos, as Musk and Co. proceed to check out new concepts.
Mainly actually, the dangers are could not that top – as long as Musk doesn’t minimize off customers wholesale or fully tank the attain of each tweet from each non-paying consumer (which Musk has mentioned, and will nonetheless occur), or open the floodgates to every kind of hate speech that might have dramatic impacts on the app.
Which he has prompt he’ll do. However he hasn’t performed it but.
Elon additionally is aware of that advertisers will come if utilization enhance, and whereas the related model dangers may nonetheless be important, it’s beginning to change into a little bit clearer that there’s a distance is between what Elon Musk says and what Elon Musk does in actuality.
And in a yr’s time, Twitter will in all probability look very very like what it does proper now. Whether or not it makes extra money, although, is the important thing question for Elon’s new crew.
