Elon Musk Raises More Questions About Twitter’s Approach, Which Could Lead to a Big Shake-Up

If nothing else, Elon Musk appears decided to shake issues up in his time as Twitter’s prime shareholder, and see what he could make occur, which might set the platform on a course for inner angst and consumer disruption as Twitter’s numerous chief attempt to discover methods to placate the most recent member of their board.

However earlier than we get into Elon’s newest suggestions for the platform, it’s value establishing the place Twitter is at, and what its present targets are, to set a transparent understanding of the stakes.

Again in 2020, investment agency Elliott Administration bought a 4% stake in Twitter – value round $1 billion on the time – with the intent of forcing Twitter to oust long-term CEO Jack Dorsey and change him with a extra business-focused chief, with a view to maximizing the app’s efficiency.

Elliott’s view was that Dorsey, who can be the CEO of Sq., was unable to present the corporate the eye it requires whereas working in each roles, so it purchased up shares with a view to push him out. Finally, Twitter’s administration negotiated a peace deal of types with the Elliott group, which concerned Elliott and Silver Lake Companions each gaining a seat every on Twitter’s board, and noticed Twitter set formidable new progress targets, which, presumably, additionally held vital penalties for Dorsey and Co. if they may not be met.

These targets had been shared publicly in February final 12 months:

• 315 million monetizable day by day energetic customers by This fall 2023 (Twitter at the moment has 217 mDAU and added 18m in whole in 2021)
• $7.5 billion annual income in 2023 (Twitter made $3.7b in 2020 and $5.1b in 2021)

As you possibly can see, these are some robust targets, and it could be that the strain positioned on the corporate on account of Elliott’s push result in Dorsey’s determination to step down as CEO in November final 12 months. Dorsey was changed by CTO Parag Argrawal within the position, and that might, in some respects, have given the Elliott consortium what it needs, which might have eased the strain on the corporate – however then, shortly after his appointment, Agrawal re-affirmed that Twitter would preserve these progress targets in Dorsey’s wake.

So Twitter already has a tricky street forward of it, particularly on consumer progress. And into this comes Elon Musk, who purchased up a 9% stake in Twitter late final week. That’s double the holding of Elliott Administration, and greater than Elliott and Silver Lake mixed, giving Musk a big voice within the firm. Twitter rapidly appointed Musk to its board, amid considerations that he might look to buy-up much more shares, and take a controlling curiosity within the firm (Musk’s appointment to the board limits him from shopping for greater than 14.9% of the corporate).

And now, we’re on this new actuality, the place Musk’s voice might maintain vital sway within the firm’s future course.

And he’s wasted no time in making provocative claims and assertions forward of his first AMA with Twitter workers subsequent week.

In a late evening flurry of tweets on Saturday evening, Musk famous that:

• Twitter’s hottest accounts, based mostly on follower numbers, are not very active, which prompted the query – ‘is Twitter dying?’

This comes after Musk shared a ballot earlier within the week, during which he requested if Twitter customers need an edit button, which greater than 4.4 million people responded to (74% in favour). Twitter then famous that it’s, in actual fact, engaged on an edit button, and has been for a while, however Musk’s ballot as soon as once more underlined the general public strain that he might placed on the corporate, which he may now use to back-up his views and opinions in Twitter’s board conferences.

Musk’s array of concepts might actually trigger some complications, and planning restructures inside Twitter HQ.

On the primary level, that Twitter’s hottest customers should not energetic – Twitter’s already engaged on this, by including in new incentives to get folks to tweet extra typically, together with Tremendous Follows, tipping, e-newsletter integration, on-profile product shows and extra. These most likely received’t get the Justin Bieber’s of the world to be extra energetic, as a result of they’re received’t essentially be incentivized by these income applications, however they may get extra mid-level influencers extra energetic, which might make Twitter really feel extra ‘alive’ as soon as once more.

Possibly. It’s onerous to say how efficient issues like Tremendous Follows will really be, however there’s probably not a great answer to get extra excessive profile customers participating extra typically. If Musk has any concepts on that, little doubt Twitter’s administration will probably be eager to listen to them.

On the second, that Twitter ought to add an alternate checkmark for paying customers, this concept has been floated many instances, that Twitter might confirm customers that show their id, not with a blue tick, however with one thing else, with a view to legitimize their presence. Making this a paid possibility most likely isn’t one of the simplest ways to go (because it might incentivize scammers), however possibly there could possibly be an argument for variable indicators based mostly on proof of id, which might put extra onus on accounts to substantiate their particulars, thereby lessening the impression of pretend accounts and bots who wouldn’t have it.

Which results in Musk’s final level (I can’t say a lot on the concept that Twitter’s dwelling base ought to be re-used for one more function), that there are too many bots and rip-off profiles within the app, which impacts the consumer expertise. That is seemingly true – in keeping with earlier estimates, round 15% of energetic Twitter profiles are seemingly bots, whereas bot accounts have additionally contributed as much as 60% of the tweets round politically divisive matters at instances.

That’s a big drawback – however on the identical time, would eradicating them be in Twitter’s greatest pursuits, from a metrics standpoint?

As famous, Twitter’s trying so as to add nearly 100m energetic customers within the subsequent 12 months and a bit. Eradicating 15% of its energetic consumer base – equal to round 32m profiles – would clearly impression that technique, making it just about inconceivable to achieve.

However possibly it might be higher for Twitter, general, to assault this extra vigorously? Possibly it might be higher to take away bots totally, even when it reduces the consumer rely – however then once more, we don’t know the penalties that Twitter’s administration could possibly be dealing with if it fails to fulfill these benchmarks.

May Musk persuade Twitter’s board to alter course on this, if Twitter had been to fight bot profiles?

That then results in questions on figuring out and eradicating bots definitively, which might undoubtedly result in some false positives, and certain some discount in engagement, at the least within the quick time period.

Such an strategy might work, within the longer-term view, however would Twitter’s different shareholders have the endurance required to re-structure this aspect?

These are the sorts of questions that Twitter’s going to must weigh within the Elon Musk period, and whereas they may nicely result in systematic enhancements, they may additionally trigger some main complications for Twitter’s administration within the upcoming quarterly studies.

After which there’s the censorship aspect, and Musk’s potential affect on Twitter’s stance on moderation and eradicating accounts that break the foundations.

Musk just lately questioned Twitter’s adherence to ‘free speech ideas’ which he famous are basic to democracy.

Musk was additionally a vocal critic of Twitter’s banning of former US President Donald Trump early final 12 months.

Curiously, the founding father of Elliott Administration, billionaire investor Paul Singer, can be a “Republican mega-donor”, who, whereas he was initially opposed Trump’s insurance policies and strategy, ultimately got here round to backing the previous chief.

So now you will have at the least two components in Twitter’s board room who, at a look, would seem to again a extra ‘free speech’ strategy to moderation on the app.

That would spark large conflicts, particularly as social platforms now appear to be usually in settlement that quicker motion is required on doubtlessly dangerous actions, with a view to quash them earlier than they acquire any traction.

Platforms took too lengthy to deal with QAnon, permitting it to unfold, and infect extra folks through their networks. They haven’t made the identical mistake on anti-Ukraine propaganda.

Will Musk’s appointment be a step again on this aspect, and permit extra harmful speech to take maintain through tweet?

Definitely, proper wingers are pleased with Musk’s board ascension, and with the pending failure of Trump’s ‘Reality Social’ app, they’ll be eager to see if Musk can reinstate a few of their previous freedoms, at the least in a perceptual sense, inside the app.

It doesn’t matter what, Twitter actually seems set for a shake-up – however whether or not the tip consequence is definitely a greater expertise, we’ll have to attend and see.