Alan Cross: 11 predictions for music in 2022 – National

Such as you, Omicron has bummed me out. Simply as we thought issues have been getting higher, COVID-19 wiggles its spikes into a brand new configuration and all of a sudden December 2021 felt lots like March 2020. However perhaps we should always have seen this coming. This pandemic mirrors lots of the issues that occurred with the nice influenza pandemic in 1918-20. If this continues to carry true, then we should always see a serious restoration by the spring.

That’s my first prediction for 2022. Listed below are a couple of different issues that I predict for the approaching yr.

1. TikTok will change into much more of a monster in the case of music

As soon as TikTok struck licensing offers with the recorded music business, the platform — now the third-largest social media community on the planet — grew to become an enormous income for labels and artists. We’ve already seen dozens of performers who blew up this fashion, together with Olivia Rodrigo, Doja Cat, and Megan Thee Stallion. And success can come out of nowhere. Vancouver’s Mom Mom has a music known as “Burning Pile” that was the sixth most-popular various/rock TikTok observe within the universe in 2021. They launched that music in 2008.

Over the past 12 months, 430 songs surpassed greater than a billion views final yr, 3 times as many as in 2020. Over 175 songs charted on the Billboard Sizzling 100, double that of the earlier yr. Count on an identical leap in 2022. When you’ve gotten 755 million month-to-month customers, lots of that are on the lookout for music, extraordinary issues can occur. What these issues could also be are nonetheless TBD.

2. The vinyl scarcity will proceed, opening the doorways to a revival of the CD

I can’t keep in mind the final time I purchased a compact disc as a result of if I’m shopping for something it’s vinyl. However due to worldwide manufacturing points and materials shortages, orders for brand spanking new vinyl have been tougher to fill and costs have skyrocketed. This admittedly is an extended shot, however may the recorded business return to the CD as a bodily various to vinyl? Possibly — at the very least till the vinyl provide chain works itself out. An attention-grabbing word: The CD was first launched to the world in late 1982, so this yr marks the format’s fortieth anniversary. That simply screams some type of commemoration, doesn’t it?

3. We’ll be so sick of the pandemic that live performance attendance will explode subsequent summer time

We noticed indications of this in some elements of the world this previous summer time with packed arenas, stadiums, and festivals. However then Delta hit, resulting in an enormous leap in ticketholder no-shows (40 per cent within the U.S., as much as 50 per cent within the U.Okay.). However as soon as winter passes, booster pictures are administered, and new remedies seem (yay, Pfizer COVID capsule!), folks will as soon as once more attend reside music occasions in droves. And please don’t even carry up the concept of yet one more variant to mess with our lives.

4. Talking of live shows, some outdated favourites shall be again on the highway

What do Paul McCartney, AC/DC, Iron Maiden, The Who, Bon Jovi, Neil Younger, Fleetwood Mac, Ozzy Osbourne, U2, Aerosmith, and the Crimson Sizzling Chili Peppers have in frequent? None have toured since COVID-19 hit. And do you blame them? Many of those performers are of their late 60s and early 70s, and having lived lives stuffed with intercourse and medicines, in all probability have some type of underlying circumstances. No surprise they’ve been staying dwelling. That, nevertheless, will come to an finish by mid-2022.

5. Augmented actuality (AR) and digital actuality (VR) will see extra integration with music

Individuals have been predicting a brand new metaverse of music for years, however the know-how is beginning to catch as much as the promise. Sure, extra acts will proceed to carry out nearly in environments like Fortnite, however that’s solely the start. As Fb strikes in the direction of being Meta coupled with the arrival of a blended actuality headset from Apple someday in 2022, music shall be one of many gateway medicine into no matter early kinds the metaverse will take.

6. Extra heritage artists will promote their catalogues

Why did Bruce Springsteen promote his life’s work to Sony? Tax functions. Certain, he may have collected common royalty cheques for the remainder of his life, however beneath U.S. tax guidelines, that cash is handled as common revenue, that means that it’s taxed at a really excessive fee, maybe as excessive as 50 per cent. Take all that cash up entrance and it’s thought of capital positive aspects. The tax fee for that’s round 20 per cent. Any questions?

There’s nonetheless some huge cash sloshing round for these types of purchases. Sting’s identify has been talked about lots. Bob Seger, too. Gene Simmons of KISS advised me he’s open to the concept so long as the value is correct. And so long as the speed of return on these music catalogues exceeds that of the speed of inflation, it stays a strong long-term technique.

7. Talking of heritage artists promoting their catalogues…

Corporations like Major Wave and Hipgnosis have shelled out billions of {dollars} to purchase music catalogues. Now comes the onerous half: They should make their a refund. That may solely be achieved by holding this music alive for longer than it in any other case would have. Count on to see much more of this Boomer-created rock seem all over the place in in style tradition, from product licensing to placement in TV exhibits and films to merchandising. One other method to generate money is to entice youthful artists to cowl these songs, so don’t be stunned if you happen to begin listening to loads of new variations of outdated songs.

8. Streaming’s dominance will proceed — however not as you may suppose

Canadians are reliably streaming greater than two billion songs every week now with on-demand audio streams forward by practically 13 per cent over 2020. Older people who grew up with bodily media are slowly stepping into the sport, particularly after they notice how straightforward it’s to immediately entry nearly each music ever recorded from wherever they’re. They usually don’t need the brand new stuff, both. Whereas the Drakes and The Weeknds of the world get all of the press for being within the Spotify High 200, the reality is 66 per cent of all streams are of songs greater than 18 months outdated. That’s the place the actual progress lies. Look ahead to streamers to push older music increasingly.

9. Streaming royalty funds will slowly change for artists

The thrill phrase is “artist-centric royalty funds.” It is a course of whereby in case you have a subscription to a streaming music service, your month-to-month payment will go to the artists you hearken to. That’s how Spotify and Apple Music work now. On the finish of every month, they have a look at which artists had the most important proportion of streams and distribute income primarily based on these percentages. Which means the cash you pay almost definitely doesn’t go to the artists you truly listened to. The superstars maintain getting extra tremendous whereas area of interest artists get damage. However now that SoundCloud and Tidal are stepping into the artist-centric headspace, there might be a shift to this new and extra truthful type of artist remuneration.

10. Extra NFTs are coming

I don’t get it. Evidently everybody needs a bit of this pattern, however I’ll move, thanks. When you’re into this type of factor, don’t be stunned to see websites like Bandcamp get into the sport.

11. Spotify will change into the worldwide king for podcast distribution

Apple virtually invented the podcast sport greater than a decade-and-a-half in the past. However in its quest to be all issues audio to everybody, Spotify has caught as much as Apple, and in some territories, moved into first place. The corporate is so severe about podcasts, it has a brand new campus in downtown Los Angeles internally known as “Pod Metropolis” that options 18 podcast studios and a efficiency stage. Your transfer, Apple.